The Preciousness of Everything': The 2014 Brian Medlin Memorial Lecture

Speech delivered at the launch of Never Mind about the Bourgeoisie: the Correspondence between Iris Murdoch and Brian Medlin 1976-1995 edited by Gillian Dooley and Graham Nerlich

Physics of Climate Change: Harmonic and exponential processes from in situ ocean time series observations show rapid asymmetric warming.

Analyses of rare ocean timeseries in the top few meters show logarithmic and exponential processes control anthropogenic global warming (AGW) of which 93% is in the oceans. Processes result in asymmetric heat capture in the North and South tropical Pacific. A new Lagrangian paradigm established a global ocean surface freshwater and heat conveyor. Climate research wrongly assumed atmospheric pan-evaporation at sea as over land, a 10m well-mixed surface layer, and ignored that seawater density depends on both salinity and temperature. In situ observations show two different heat-capture and evaporation regimes exist dependent on surface temperature and salinity. The tropical North Pacific is temperature dominant, but other tropical oceans are salinity dependent. Incident solar radiation is cyclical and greenhouse gas (GHG) heat-capture is exponential and cumulative. The rate of GHG-caused climate change is disputed and not quantitatively evaluated. A target limit of total atmospheric temperature rise of <2°C is forecast from 30 to 100 years, or not at all. It is based on doubling of total carbon emissions from the long-term stable 280ppm to 560ppm. Here we show solar cycles became less significant compared to exponentially rising GHG heat capture after the 1957 solar maximum Keeling Point. The doubling time for exponential warming is ~20 years at -0.030-0.037°Cyr-1. GHG warming of is now ~1°C. At present rates, exponential increases add +1°C in ~20yr, +2°C in ~40yr, +4°C in ~60yr, 8°C in ~80yr above existing levels. Post-1957 carbon dioxide concentration GHG forcing is also doubling in ~20yrs at 0.0268ppmyr-1. It rose from 1957-1976 by 17.1ppm, and from 1977-1996 by 34.4ppm. A further doubling by 68.4ppm would bring total emissions to 435ppm by 2017. It exceeded 400ppm in 2014. Carbon dioxide accounts for three quarters of the GHGs. Of the others, methane and HCFCs already may be out of control. Ocean surface temperature anomalies are close to the proposed +2°C limit. Century-long records in 5yr anomalies in the North Pacific show peaks of +1.6°C at the surface in 1995, and +1.3°C at 5m. North Atlantic peaks were +1.12°C in 2005 consistent Arctic freshwater fluxes. Central England temperature (CET) 5-yr peak air anomaly was +1.3°C in 2004 consistent with a rapid response in air due to low heat capacity. 2014 is a record year for temperatures and carbon dioxide total emissions. Pacific sub-surface water warmed faster than at the surface. The freshwater lid that thickened limits heat loss. The annual cycled heat increased by 3MJm-3 over 100yr at Isle of Man, by 1MJm-3 over 88yr at Scripps Pier surface, and by 4MJm-3 over 78yr at 5m. The post-1986 annual Arctic ice heat cycle decreased by -2,633MJm-3. Before 1986 tropical heat was offset against polar melt and runoff at Port Erin. After, exponentially decreasing Arctic ice reduced thickness from 1.9m-1.4m but surface area decreased more slowly than volume. This accounts for the observed increased polar ice formation surface layer at <4°C and <24.7° in Polar Seas. Process rate differences derive from the ~3000x greater heat capacity of water to air (3.9x106: 1.3x103Jm-3°C-1), and the ~1000x greater density (1023: 1.2 kgm-3). The top 10m operates on decadal timescales. Heat is trapped under a surface freshwater lid. Sub-surface heat penetration is on centennial and millennial timescales. It takes ~250yr since the industrial revolution for two thirds of AGW to reach ~300m. The flux of heat and freshwater through Bering Strait doubled from 2000-2007. It accounts for one third of surface layer meltwater fluxes into the Labrador Current at a rate of ~0.85Sv. The Atlantic inflow of ~8.5Sv accounts for the remainder with an Arctic residence time above the halocline of ~2.5-6 years. This is consistent with the three and half years at the Isle of Man between the seasonal 1959 October high and the record 1963 February low. The Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) compensates the land-locked Pacific surface layer bringing warm salty water under the Panama freshwater warm pool. We suggest the doubled warming of the North Pacific led to a quasi-permanent loop in the sub-polar jet stream. Warm air driven over Beringia displaces cold polar air to the North American mid-west. This resulted in continuous extreme weather over central North America in 2013-2014. In the southern hemisphere high evaporation resulted in record precipitation that temporarily reduced sealevels in 2012. Changed ocean ecological systems have been reported. The Pacific warming led to enhanced hurricane frequency from the Panama warm pool as well as super typhoons in the western North Pacific. North America now has hurricane seasons on both coasts and Hawaii, and extreme weather year-round. The warm tropical Gulf Stream/Columbus and Viking polar gyre boundary shifted northwards in the mid 1990s. It shows at Port Erin in a 1990s high seasonal salinity. After the millennium until records ceased in 2006, a seasonal freshwater layer was observed, consistent with a thickened freshwater lid over high salinity tropical water. Most long-term continuous records in the top 5m ceased in the mid 1980s. We suggest the ocean layer is warming exponentially and freshening. Global Ocean warming is known as the tragedy of the commons. Solutions include individual ownership and responsibility through, for example, managing fisheries by individual transferable quotas. The Zero Marginal Cost Society, the adopted goal of the UN and world leaders, requires a painful paradigm transition from a Newtonian to a Thermodynamic stable sustainable no-growth system. The option of population control cannot succeed in time. The EU leaders commitment to reduce GHG requires reduction of ~8.9ppmyr-1 for the next 16 years to 2030. It is the only viable solution. However, it requires binding global commitments to a new paradigm conserving thermodynamic principles of maximized use of Earth‟s natural resources. In economic terms this means narrowing the gap between rich and poor and deflation to stability of zero growth. Without immediate implementation, we suggest the exponential growth will continue, and may already be beyond control. Our work needs further experimental verification in the near-surface ocean on short space and timescales especially along meridional transects. The Isle of Man and Galapagos Islands, with both tropical and polar water, are ideal to establish constant monitoring of temperature, salinity, pH currents, and sealevel at 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, and 10m along with standard Met observations including pan evaporation and precipitation on purpose-build piers. Ocean-side measurements allow data to be collected efficiently with calibrated instruments if part of well-funded independent University level research. This way a new generation of young scientists well trained in classical physics can establish the scientific truth through experimental verification. This could proceed as part of a crash program to develop alternative natural energy resources based on geothermal heat exchange, pumped storage, tides and tidal currents, solar, winds and renewable carbon until nuclear fusion comes online as the ultimate solution

In situ measurement shows ocean boundary layer physical processes control catastrophic global warming.

The infrared greenhouse gas heat trap at the top of the atmosphere controls anthropogenic global warming (AGW) heat balance. Processes at the top of the ocean similarly control the 93% of AGW in the oceans. The tropics are a global year-round ocean heat source. Heat is transported in the ocean by sinking brine from tropical evaporation and polar freezing. Buoyant freshwater and ice barriers limit heat loss from the surface layer. The almost completely unstudied ocean surface skin is critically important to understanding global warming and climate change processes. Studies to date have concentrated on atmospheric warming mainly from land-air data. In this paper we present the first hourly meridional 3m and surface observations in the equatorial Pacific from Tahiti to Hawaii for direct measurement of evaporation and ocean boundary layer heat trapping. We relate this to poleward heat and freshwater transport and ocean warming moderation by basal icemelt of floating ice explored in a second paper [1]. We show heat sequestration below 3m in the hypersaline (>35.5°) southern hemisphere (SH) is limited to ~6M Jm -2 day-1 but evaporation is 7.3mmm-2day--1, at salinity ~36.4° and temperature >28ºC. In the northern hemisphere (NH) tropics the corresponding figures are ~12 MJm-2day-1 and ~4.5mmm -2day--1. Equatorial upwelling and the 50m deep Bering Strait limit buoyant surface outflow from the North Pacific. We found pairs of counter-rotating vertical meridional tropical cells (MTCs), ~300-1200km wide, ~100m deep form separate SH and NH systems with little cross-equatorial flux. Counter-rotating Lagrangian wind-driven gyres transport heat and freshwater polewards in seasonally and tidally moderated stratified surface waters. The zonal geostrophic balance is maintained by the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) with an eastbound core ~140cms-1 and density ~25.0 at 50-150m. Global warming and polar icemelt has been underestimated from wrong assumptions of the processes in the top 3m of oceans. These are the unverified beliefs that ocean evaporation depends on windspeed and relative humidity that the ocean is well mixed to 10m depths, and by neglect of water density determined by both salinity and temperature. Temperature measurement to±0.01ºC is required to account for the 3000x greater volumetric heat capacity of seawater to air (3.9x106: 1.3x103Jm-3°C-1). Most SST data are to atmospheric standards (>±0.5°C). Evaporation depends only on temperature (Clausius-Clapeyron). Heat sequestration depends on the buoyant surface layer processes and underlying density gradient. Eleven interconnected counter-rotating Lagrangian wind-driven surface gyres form a global circulation system that carries buoyant surface water masses at speeds much higher than Eulerian geostrophic currents. Polar ice may erode year-round from basal melting from warm subsurface water.This explains contrasting Arctic/Antarctic warming impacts. We suggest many more in situ 3m timeseries especially meridional ones are needed to confirm our findings. In a second paper on centennial daily surface timeseries we show ocean surface warming trend rate post about 1976-1986 is ~0.037ºCyr-1, i.e. >ºC in 20 years [1]. We suggest global warming research be concentrated on the top of the ocean through multidisciplinary timeseries fieldwork verification, monitoring and modeling. This would best be conducted through a cost-efficient dynamic adaptive scientific management for rapid determination of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Reducing troposphere greenhouse gases can only reduce warming. Mitigation maybe possible through heat energy extraction from geothermal, ocean, tidal and solar sources

Leaders\u27 Influence on School Reculturing: A Case Study of an International School

Organizational theorists and even practitioners are beginning to use the construct of organizational culture to analyze and characterize the complexities and challenges of organizational life. The construct has been used to metaphorize, frame, interpret, and understand various aspects of organizational life, including leadership and the change process. The literature indicates that leaders can influence an organization by attending to its cultural dimensions. Much of this literature, however, is theoretical and speculative, and the empirical work has focused, for the most part, on business. The overarching purpose of this qualitative study was to enrich understanding of the culture construct and its relationship to leadership and change by examining how leaders in a highly atypical, outlier organization employed the notion of culture during a three-year change process. Specifically, this study focused on the reculturing process in an international school environment, which was especially appropriate because the new superintendent had repeatedly used the notion to promote change. The primary research method utilized in this study was interviewing; participant observation and document analysis were employed to triangulate interview data. Data analysis involved the use of two quite different strategies, which Polkinghorne (1995) calls narrative analysis and analysis of narratives. Narrative analysis involves reconstructing the data as a chronology that tells the story of what occurred. Analysis of narratives involve a more traditional coding approach that organizes the anecdotal information gathered during the data collection phase into predetermined and emergent categories. The following findings are implicit in the story resulting from the narrative analysis process and made explicit in the analysis of narratives results: (a) Culture had become part of the “native language” for most—but not all—members of the administrative team. (b) Those who used the construct attached somewhat different—though not radically inconsistent—meanings. (c) An array of reculturing mechanisms were identified by those interviewed. (d) The effectiveness of the identified mechanisms appears to vary, although in most cases, interviewees suggested variability had more to do with implementation issues rather than with the adequacy of the mechanisms themselves. (e) Interviewees identified a range of resistance strategies that members of the organization employed

Making science lessons engaging more popular and equitable through emotional literacy

This article highlights the benefits of introducing aspects of emotional literacy into lessons. Data were collected from 165 Year 7 pupils in two schools over 1 year. Pupils benefit as they can enjoy science more, as well as learn to work together and support each other to learn. The research found that incorporating emotional literacy strategies into lessons on a regular basis increased pupils' interest in continuing with science as a subject, especially in the case of girls. The latter part of the article explains in detail the strategies that were used to develop pupils' emotional literacy and specifies how these can be utilised effectively so that interested teachers can replicate them

mSHAP: SHAP Values for Two-Part Models

Two-part models are important to and used throughout insurance and actuarial science. Since insurance is required for registering a car, obtaining a mortgage, and participating in certain businesses, it is especially important that the models which price insurance policies are fair and non-discriminatory. Black box models can make it very difficult to know which covariates are influencing the results. SHAP values enable interpretation of various black box models, but little progress has been made in two-part models. In this paper, we propose mSHAP (or multiplicative SHAP), a method for computing SHAP values of two-part models using the SHAP values of the individual models. This method will allow for the predictions of two-part models to be explained at an individual observation level. After developing mSHAP, we perform an in-depth simulation study. Although the kernelSHAP algorithm is also capable of computing approximate SHAP values for a two-part model, a comparison with our method demonstrates that mSHAP is exponentially faster. Ultimately, we apply mSHAP to a two-part ratemaking model for personal auto property damage insurance coverage. Additionally, an R package (mshap) is available to easily implement the method in a wide variety of applications

Isle of Man, Galapagos and sunspot data show net cooling hid double exponential ocean warming danger: +3°C in 2014, +4°C likely by 2016.

Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) heat is trapped by the greenhouse gas (GHG) blanket, and the ocean surface layer. It is 93% in the ocean and drives atmospheric warming. The 111-year mean daily surface temperatures are 10.5±0.5°C at Port Erin (PE) Isle of Man compared with 9.6±4.8°C in Central England (CET) air. The Port Erin 5½-year max-min heat cycle synchronizes to the 11-year solar heat pump sunspot cycle. Tropical heat arrives 2 years after a solar maximum on wind-driven currents in the stratified sea surface. Runoff from bottom-up melted Arctic icesheets arrives 3½ year later at solar minimum. These warm and cold waters are the biodiversity source. PE is unique with seasonal meltwaters of Pacific and Atlantic origin. The North Pacific warms twice as fast as other oceans. All ocean near-surface gyre currents harmonize with sunspot cycles. Net cooling by polar icemelt masks catastrophic exponential ocean warming and icemelt. Eleven counter-rotating surface gyres carry heat and nutrients globally in verified ocean surface circulation system. Exponential growth is unsustainable in a finite system. It trends to infinity. Double-exponential gets there twice as quickly. The GHG blanket, grown double-exponentially for 250 years, is now in control. Ocean heat absorption takes 150-250years. Arctic icemelt increases double-exponentially. The Arctic long-term annual freeze-melt volume cycle is 16.8±1.3 thousand cubic km per year. Polar land icemelt adds ~500 km3m per year. Freeze-brine of salinity >40‰ and temperature – 1°C, sinks to the bottom. Equatorial evaporative-brine of salinity >36.4‰ and >28°C floats subsurface under fresh warm layers thickening westwards in tropical meridional cells to ~75m depth. This is consistent with observed extreme weather. Heat imbalance forced Pacific Ocean temperatures above proposed limits of +2°C in 1993, to +3°C in 2014, and is on track for +4°C for 2016. Century-long daily records confirm processes ongoing for 300 years. Coast locations are where impacts are felt and real-time data collected. Corporate governance degraded physics teaching in only 60 years. Individual discovery and data collection was lost. Big science is unnecessary. Satellites cannot do plankton tows. Computer modelsare governed by the rule of „garbage-in garbage-out?. They must be verified by in situ data that cannot be collected retrospectively. Continuous timeseries surface profile data from fixed ocean station locations on a global variableboundary network are essential. Scientists, if well-trained in ocean experimental physics, can do the hard work. Time-poor scientists, stripped of their intellectual property rights, under rewarded, poorly educated, and ruthlessly exploited by growth-obsessed commercial interests, missed catastrophic global warming and multiple extreme consequences. Climate scientists abandoned classical physics and Newton-Hooke field verification in favor of unverified beliefs, models, and apps. Climate studies confuse heat with temperature, do not include basal icemelt, density temperature-salinity function, Clausius-Clapeyron evaporation exponential skin temperature function, asymmetric brineheat sequestration, solar and tidal pumping, infra-red GHG heat trap, vertical tropical cells, freshwater warm pools; or wind-driven surface currents at 3 percent of windspeed. Climate model mistaken assumptions lead to the absurd conclusion that evaporation in the Labrador Sea at midnight in midwinter is greater than at the midday Equator. The Isle of Man provides an ideal location for continued monitoring and mitigation research, teaching and public service ina dedicated non-commercial independent multidisciplinary university-type setting. Quality teaching is the major priority. Commercial monopoly rights need replacement with free, fully open discussions and publications. Quality not quantity should be paramount. Internationally competitive academics should control subservient lower paid support staff. Every day without ocean surface data means vital scientific truth lost of interest and concern to all populations. Predictions are groundless without accurate continuous ocean surface data. Skeptics, politicians, statisticians, those with stakes in the status quo, and established research censors obstructing scientific progress squabble in ignorance while the globe burns

Ami-The Chemist's Amanuensis

Poster presented at the VSMF Symposium held at the Unilever Centre on 2011-01-17The Ami project was a six month Rapid Innovation project sponsored by JISC to explore the Virtual Research Environment space. The project brainstormed with chemists and decided to investigate ways to facilitate monitoring and collection of experimental data. A frequently encountered use-case was identified of how the chemist reaches the end of an experiment, but finds an unexpected result. The ability to replay events can significantly help make sense of how things progressed. The project therefore concentrated on collecting a variety of dimensions of ancillary data – data that would not normally be collected due to practicality constraints. There were three main areas of investigation: 1) Development of a monitoring tool using infrared and ultrasonic sensors; 2) Time-lapse motion video capture (for example, videoing 5 seconds in every 60); and 3) Activity-driven video monitoring of the fume cupboard environs. The Ami client application was developed to control these separate logging functions. The application builds up a timeline of the events in the experiment and around the fume cupboard. The videos and data logs can then be reviewed after the experiment in order to help the chemist determine the exact timings and conditions used. The project experimented with ways in which a Microsoft Kinect could be used in a laboratory setting. Investigations suggest that it would not be an ideal device for controlling a mouse, but it shows promise for usages such as manipulating virtual molecules.Ami was a six month project under the “JISC Rapid Innovation Grants 10/09” programme, Grants for the Virtual Research Environment - Rapid Innovation funding call. [http://www.jisc.ac.uk/fundingopportunities/funding_calls/2009/10/vreri.aspx

Legal aspects of farm partnerships

"In 1978, 10.8 percent of all farms in Missouri with annual sales of $2,500 or more were operated as partnerships. In 1982, 9.9 percent of all farms in Missouri conducted business on a partnership basis, as did 13 percent of Missouri farms with annual sales of$10,000 of more. As illustrated by these statistics, farm partnerships constitute a significant portion of the farm business in Missouri."--First page.Stephen F. Matthews and Brian Griffith (Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture)Revised 5/85/6

A linked data approach to publishing complex scientific workflows

Past data management practices in many fields of natural science, including climate research, have focused primarily on the final research output - the research publication - with less attention paid to the chain of intermediate data results and their associated metadata, including provenance. Data were often regarded merely as an adjunct to the publication, rather than a scientific resource in their own right. In this paper, we attempt to address the issues of capturing and publishing detailed workflows associated with the climate/research datasets held by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia. To this end, we present a customisable approach to exposing climate research workflows for the effective re-use of the associated data, through the adoption of linked-data principles, existing widely adopted citation techniques (Digital Object Identifier) and data exchange mechanisms (Open Archives Initiative Object Reuse and Exchange)